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NCND | 1234 look at numbers at my location of the increase. It's a 30 fold increase there alone that's on mainline. I know of 4 other oil by rail facilities on that line alone west of us.
The numbers just don't work. It would be like us going from growing 90 mil acres of corn to 2700 million acres of corn in 18 months. Where and how do you ship the extra product.
I'm guessing rail loadings have grown at a pretty constant rate over last god knows how long. No you increase that growth 30 fold instead of trend line how do you handle it? This is not a problem that fixes itself overnight. We have become brazil as our output taken away by rail has outgrown infra structure.
Rail is cheapest way to move product. We won't start trucking it to pnw. Beig where we are rail is only option for majority of our shipping. Kinda like that argument about refineries going in here. Why would we take finished products and shop from here when it's easier and cheaper and serves more by shipping raw product.
I don't think the ethanol theory flies. The amount we produce here does not justify not selling premium oil at the best markets
In the end we will be the wheat reserve and partly bean reserve. Yes we may do some local processing but that will be minuscule in grand scheme.
Like I said by 2015 we may be back on business. Wasn't it sat that said they were building new rail this winter to get around better?
They store trains in out of way places because all the other places are taken. There are cars on sidetrack all over here because that is where they "hold" them while other things move.
There are bottlenecks in the system. Just because it leaves nd doesn't mean it's smooth sailing. We are the geographical center of North America. That is the tourism departments fancy way of saying " you can't get any further from the fricken ocean than here!"
In the meantime we are a couple years late but maybe just buy some bnsf stock as business will be growing for sometime. I think our oil starts to level off around 2018 so growth at great pace until then.
These problems will not be fixed overnight but in the meantime when someone wants wheat from us we will see the basis spike like this week. Then when they get it maybe it goes back to the new normal.
Until you have spent time here you don't get how big and far ranging the bakken affects are. Especially when you have watched it from day one like we have.
More track is only way to move more. But it takes more than just track in nd. It needs it everywhere A logistical nightmare may be an understatement.
I told the elevator merchandiser to fix evey one of my hta's the second there is another train derailment. I was serious and he knew I was for if we do have one and possibly stop oil by rail or limit it the basis will collapse as they are predicting this fall as bnsf gets more employees and units available.
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Fall 2014 basis meeting with PNW shippers
