|
Ridgway, IL | One thing I have to consider in regard to soybean basis for fall of 2014.... For the past several years, the Chinese soybean buying customers have made a push to get some degree of new crop purchases on the books as the crop is going into the ground here in USA. For the past several years, this purchasing pace has been faster than what the American producer has been willing to transfer ownership for new crop positions, and we have seen basis values appreciate to delivery value equivelant on the river system, as that is the backstop for exporters to offer soybeans against.
Now, this year, we have an arguably more comfortable bean carryout situation, which appears like it is going to be made even more comfortable by a larger South American soybean crop that should be in a more exportable position than it has been in the past few years i think... basing that assumption on the policy alterations at Sam ports that have been made to reduce shipping delays and increase daily load out capacities.
I believe that we will likely see declining flat prices, and a lingering inverse, which will encourage the Chinese to make purchases faster again than the producer is willing to sell. I like selling bean futures now and waiting a little while to establish basis values.
| |
|
Fall 2014 basis meeting with PNW shippers
