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Is inflation on our doorstep?
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idea1947
Posted 1/17/2014 09:15 (#3610913 - in reply to #3610532)
Subject: RE: Is inflation on our doorstep?


Very briefly, and I will limit myself to a 20 or 30 year time frame in which I have a reasonable expectation of being around to see if I'm correct.  My predictions:

The business cycle is alive and well, we will see ups and downs in the economy.  Regarding future trends in interest and inflation rates, past performance is our best indicator of future results. The U.S Dollar will remain the predominate world currency, and the full faith and credit of the US Government will remain intact (unless the Tea Party takes over). The Fed will successfully unwind QE without serious damage to the economy, the program will be viewed as a limited success.  The chances of hyperinflation in the U.S. in that time frame are practically zero.  The probability of a black swan event that provides a severe systemic shock to the economy during within the next 30 years is less than 50/50.  Current social welfare and social insurance programs will survive and be expanded upon. The chances of a return to a commodity based monetary system are nil, for the same reasons that we will not adopt a numeric system based on Roman numerals. Prognosticators in 2044 will be claiming "The End Is Nigh."

Don't know how useful that is, but you asked.

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