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| I am amazed every year how many professionals, farmers, small time traders talk their crop, hedge account or trade account. Even when the fundementals have changed! I guess I have fallen to the trapp in the past myself. You sit down and invision how much money you have in your account, if A, B,or C happens. Then you tell yourself "I am a smarter trader, grain seller, or hedger then anyone else in the world" so it has to happen. Some go as far as figuring out how much money they would get in insurance if corn dropps to three dollars "double dip". Reality is if fundementals change and the trend is higher stick with the trend. Deal with it, don't get stuck in the mindset the your are so right all the time.
For snits a giggles I called a prominant guru/trading advisory, to ask them what they thought of the 60 year trend of poor crops on a year ending with three. He is bucking the trend BTW. He is sticking with his forward saled and hedges and isn't blowing out of them. His price goals are far too low. He went so far as to say the market will top off monday. He said he had a person on the PFT and he said the only small pod set number is out of iowa. In essance he was trading his forward sales and hedges and isn't looking at the train wreck in front of him.
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Hammer marketing 101
