New crop basis levels are coming up "down south."  The Gulf is bidding +135 to +175..

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/jo_gr850.txt  

up about $.25 in the past couple of days.. some of the river terminals in the southland that I track are also showing simlar gains with a definite widening between the current bid and a "new crop" bid..  (the cliff is getting steeper.. in the area's that supposedly already "broke."..)  Although there is still a healthy inversion.. say 45 days out.. or whenever things "get back to normal."  Again I don't deny that old crop and new crop basis won't come together..at some point.. just that it's gonna take longer than most expect.. which appears to be the case.  And that there's a lot of "room" for "new crop" values to come up.. as well as o/c to come down..

I could tweak these numbers.. but "not much" seems warrented to change..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=410136&DisplayType=nested&setCookie=1

The burn rate is what I would call attention to.. I posted this as a WAG.. calibrating LAST YEAR's useage off the Stocks Reports.. which then yielded a weekly average useage.. and matching that with similar years of harvesting.. Mainly that we would be "somewhere" in the area of around 8% harvested by the 3rd week of September..  "so far.. so good."  This pace is BEHIND last year's pace.. as more matured earlier on the dryer conditions Last year.  Notice how we do not reach the tightest level of stocks for another couple of weeks yet.. and really don't get back to today's levels until the end of September..

I've been busy and haven't had time to read everything.. but just will re-iterate that we haven't seen the tightest part yet.. and this could have MAJOR implications for the Sept board.. going off.  We probably won't truely hit "new crop" values until middle of October.. which wouldn't be all bad.  For all these reasons.. I'm still believing that I could see new crop values in the middle 5's at that time.. but "I could be wrong"..??   Isn't there a seasonal tendency to rally the board from here forward.. always seems like the years that I bust to make early premium.. I could have just let things field dry.. and netted the same...??

I don't buy the bear's arguments at all..  Look at those weekly useage rates.. in 2011 we went from 166 myn bushels per week in Q4 to 287 myn bushels in Q1.. PER WEEK..  That's going from using 1 (one) Tennessee crop per week.. to the better part of a Michigan crop PER WEEK!!  Furthermore we have a LOT more sales on the books down at the gulf..  Sure it's a record crop.. but it's late.. and demand isn't any slouch either..  That's my point.  (and I'm sticking to it.)

Someone said that the market is bearish because the farmer is only like 10% sold on new crop..  You can play cat and mouse with that all you want but we'll burn through that within the first 5 weeks.. What if some of that 10% is up in the RRV and they haven't even started harvest by then...???  Make no mistake.. the market is gonna have to pry some bushels loose..  I got my targets.. "we'll see" if they get hit..


JonSCKs.. WAG..  

fwiw.