I continue to see strong evidence that this transition of very tight old crop stocks into strong demand continues.. For Instance the gulf basis improved (a little) yesterday..

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/jo_gr850.txt

As well as terminal stocks draining..

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswgrstock.pdf

The burn rate is what matters.. and we still have a few weeks yet before we hit bottom on stocks..  However, Maizeing is correct.. basis will weaken going into harvest.. the question is how much.. and how long will it take..??  My argument all along has been that "it will take awhile." 

(note: I don't have this spreadsheet on this computer.. I updated USDA's numbers but did not recrunch them.. so the sheet will be a little off.. I need to tweak it.. make the ending carryout = the new # 719.. although we'll get the real one here in a few weeks.. my hunch is that it is lower...??)

It's all going to work out.. we have a big enough crop.. users will see cheaper prices.. maybe not as low as they want.. and producers will get their opportunities also..