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| with the dry weather you can take 5 bu off the 152 averages, it will end up at 147 (my number has been 148). Multiply it times what should be 2 million pp and you get a harvest number of86.9. multiply the two and you get 12,775 final yield. If it freezes two weeks early you take off 10 bu (depending on the severety), you end up with 11,905.3 crop. Very few scenarios increase the size of this crop any further and more point to it decreasing. | |
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my numbers..
