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If the pipeline is dry, why sell at these prices?
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JonSCKs
Posted 8/4/2013 12:28 (#3247135 - in reply to #3247041)
Subject: Yup.


Facts:

a) A 2 million bushel house took in less than 40 k bu of HRW Wht... (I suspect some of the harvest went to the feedlot's)

b) Shipping 10 pro wheat west after harvest.. bringing 13 pro back.. (where they did raise a wheat crop.. It even pulled THAT.. 150 miles WEST... "wow.")

Todd's correct.. there's been ALOT of wheat fed.. reports that the local lot has been feeding since February.. Now.. all of that is changing.. and will change as corn becomes available at the new lower prices.

So.. granted.. some may have sat on Corn inventory up North.. Dakota's and Minny.. but here we were sweeping the bins last winter/spring.  I only had 1/2 of one bin full of corn after harvest last year...  We sold the last part of LAST year's crop at +$.50.. $.60.. it peaked out at something like $+.80 delivered.. Although the local coop said it took in a decent crop last year.. but they are down to Open Storage now.

I don't believe we can store to infinity.. although I do like to have SOME gambling stocks in a bin..

I just see where the Funds keep Piling on the shorts.. depending upon the source..  hmmm.. this one says..

"non-commercials held a net short futures position of 58,425 k's.. " that's almost 300 myn bushels SHORT.. Now it's not all in the Sept.. but that month sure looks ripe for a squeeze.. when JUST ABOUT ANY OTHER MARKET is trading +$1.00+   Not to mention a frost.. or China coming in..

I understand that the market is bearish.. And I poked at Maizing a little below.. but one way that the basis goes to the futures is that THE FUTURES COME UP... as shorts cover..  will it happen..??

I'm not saying that has to happen.. but the SHORTS MUST COVER at some point.. either as Farmers pitch in the towel.. OVER AND ABOVE.. the 5 byn bushels of demand that will be needed to be sourced over the next 5 months.. When you look at a burn sheet.. even a 13.9 byn bu crop.. hardly stays above 10 byn bushels for more than a couple of weeks...Assuming it's all brought in by Thanksgiving... and that's looking pretty iffy..  Heck we're still A MONTH away from starting here.. and last year there was Corn picked in July in Kansas.. (it wasn't any good..) but they started a week ago last year.. picked like 1500 out of 3500 acres back east..  Heck we started.. August..?? 20th.. I'd have to go look it up.. but that won't be the case this year.

I was looking at dryland yesterday.. and it does look better.. (if it's not underwater today..) I got some corn 3.5' tall.. trying to shoot an ear that's 1.5' above the ground... but I also pulled some 16 or 18 x 35's that somehow pollinated since the rains started.. "hmmm.  amazing"  Still needs to fill and dry down.. though.  A ways yet to go.. but not as bleak as a few weeks ago.. just need a poontoon boat to look at it today.. golly what a mess.. 3.5" since midnight.. water everywhere now..  lol...

"always something."

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