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Reality is.......
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2388
Posted 8/3/2013 13:47 (#3245625)
Subject: Reality is.......


Eastern, IN		A buddy and I went to the Farm Journal Corn Session in Coldwater MI this week with farmers from 20 states and 2 Canadian Providences. There were a few questions that were asked of the 200+ farmers that were there (my best guess). At one point he speaker asked us all to stand up.

They ask the following:
Anyone that feels their crops will yield below average please sit down (about 6 sat down)
Anyone that feels there crops are average please sit down (about 20 sat down)
The last 2 question were for above average and the best crops you have ever had.


Think about it, everyone else felt their crops were above average or the best they have ever had! I know this is not a true cross section of the corn belt but it was an eye opener.
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cropspy
Posted 8/3/2013 13:55 (#3245636 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


if you're in a room of 200 standing, how can u tell 6 sat down unless it was right on your immediate area? kinda of odd to ask all to stand in the beginning, doncha think?

Edited by cropspy 8/3/2013 13:55
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2388
Posted 8/3/2013 15:38 (#3245744 - in reply to #3245636)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


Eastern, IN		I looked around. They didnt ask us to keep our eyes closed?
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cropspy
Posted 8/3/2013 16:41 (#3245817 - in reply to #3245744)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


if 200 people are standing UP.....(your exact words where) " At one point he speaker asked us all to stand up" unless you are 6'8+....how can you see 6 sit down??? it would almost impossible to determine only 6 unless your vantage point was from above, well above.

your eyes might have been open, but your logic is lacking.

doesn't it make more sense to you, that the speaker should have gestured for everyone to please take a seat,,,,and then asked those applicable to stand for each respective question, and sit back down before moving on to the next question?

Edited by cropspy 8/3/2013 16:55
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northmofarm
Posted 8/3/2013 14:00 (#3245644 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


The acres that went in good and I would call a 90 percent or better stand look way above avg. I know it the best ground in mo but you can drive from Carrollton too Marshall mo and not find a field that won't make over 200bu and some much more than that. Lots of guys with some pp acres and corn ac that were switched too beans. Those figures will go a long ways in determining the final corn crop. With a good spring myself and 3 of my best friends would have had another 500-750 ac of corn each. I'm thinking those kind of figures were needed to get us that 97 million plus. We will find out on the aug report if the acres start coming down. Most of the good bottom ground around here that did not have nh3 on it yet ended up pp or switched too beans. The corn planting window before may 25 way less than 7 real good days.
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Chalupa~Batman
Posted 8/3/2013 14:08 (#3245653 - in reply to #3245644)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


I don't know, several weeks ago you said things were great, a few weeks ago they were terrible, now they're great again. Not doubting you, it just seems your crop is some of the most variable I have ever heard of. I went from Brunswick to Marshall the other day and went by many fields I wouldn't vouch for making 200 - that said I haven't walked them so I could be wrong.
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northmofarm
Posted 8/3/2013 14:16 (#3245663 - in reply to #3245653)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


Last 2 weeks in July were really big all over. We've had almost 3 inches of rain the last 2 weeks on all farms and some a little more. If it would have turned 95 plus and no rain in the corn belt the last 2 weeks te market would be a dollar higher or more. Things are still subject to change and do so weekly, but there's some awful good looking crops all over the place. Even Kansas and ok. I'm not sitting on the wise mans chair in this deal either. I pulled my new crop puts at break even and bought calls first part of July. I'd be in the money if I'd left my outs alone.

Edited by northmofarm 8/3/2013 14:20
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tmrand
Posted 8/3/2013 15:30 (#3245735 - in reply to #3245663)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......



Southeast Colorado		I'm with Batman a little on this one...........not to give you too much hell but you seem to be an emotional roller coaster when talking about your crops. I know for a fact that corn can't be on its last breath and then 2 weeks later from rain instantly become 200 bushel corn. It evidently wasn't that bad before your rains came. I'm not trying to chase you off because I appreciate your posts here but sometimes it is a little frustrating to track what folks are saying and have them swing so drastically from one day to the next. It would be nice to use these pages as a guage to help us all market our crops a little better.
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2388
Posted 8/3/2013 15:41 (#3245748 - in reply to #3245735)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


Eastern, IN		Crapy corn with good timed rains can change quik. Nomo is fine
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IALTO
Posted 8/3/2013 18:10 (#3245912 - in reply to #3245748)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


WC MN		That's Ridiculous. If Corn ever truly looked crappy it has had some yield loss from its potential. The idea that you can have corn that looks like a train wreck then be a great crop is ridiculous.
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2388
Posted 8/3/2013 18:40 (#3245952 - in reply to #3245912)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


Eastern, IN
IALTO - 8/3/2013 18:10

That's Ridiculous. If Corn ever truly looked crappy it has had some yield loss from its potential. The idea that you can have corn that looks like a train wreck then be a great crop is ridiculous.
. Some yield loss yes but it can still turn out to be good corn
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DevinF
Posted 8/3/2013 21:11 (#3246208 - in reply to #3245952)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......



Nwmo		In MO you don't have at anytime a crappy looking crop and raise 200 bu field avg corn, that is a pipe dream. I will say I have been optimistic we will have better yields than last year ( last year 40 - 140). Having said that last week we walked over a representative sample of about a thousand acres of corn within 15 miles of town and while the plants look good, ear size and pollination are a little bit disappointing. Lots of banana ears and major tip back, on avg out of 30000 - 32000 plants 27000 had harvest-able ears because of late emergence or bad pollination. We seem to have high numbers of rows around (16 - 20) but all are no longer than 32 kernels with most being in the 27-28 range. Our July was typical except for cool temps but our start was dismal so I think that adds up to an avg to below avg ear for most. 200 bu is not average.

Devin
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twraska
Posted 8/4/2013 08:35 (#3246761 - in reply to #3246208)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


Wallis, TX

I'm in SE TX and about to be finished shelling corn.  On all but a couple of fields the yields were disappointing, always a few bushels less than what we thought were there.  Even the irrigated was at least 10 below what I thought was lowest it would go, some was 50 below our anticipated yield.  Anyone need some storage space?  We've go plenty! LOL

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buckster
Posted 8/3/2013 14:08 (#3245655 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


north central iowa		I know there is a fair amount of ground around here that was planted AND certified corn that now has beans on it as the corn drowned out or rotted and didnt come up...
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Gumby
Posted 8/3/2013 14:58 (#3245704 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


NE IL		Yeah...because farmers tell the truth about their crop, especially in front of a bunch of other farmers and guys that are automatically going to pick up the phone and give that info to somebody trading at the CME.
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cropspy
Posted 8/3/2013 15:11 (#3245721 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


"Reality is"...........as E. Taylor spoke some weeks ago, you don't make average to above average crops in a year full of extremes, and he said that before all the cool wx invaded........historical late snowfall, historical late cold, near/to historical rainfall in Apr, historical dry first half of July & complete July for certain areas(and i'm speaking mainly to "major" corn belt area) and now historical low temps????

that's the reality(facts) thus far,............what's to come is pure conjecture at this point, plain & simple
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hedgefund farmer
Posted 8/3/2013 17:05 (#3245844 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


kinda reminds me of earlier in the week one of my brokers told me a conversation he had with another farmer who wanted to buy calls based on PP etc. When asked how his crops were , it was" oh I got really good crop coming prolly avg 200" Sometimes we outthink ourselves a little bit IMO.
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IALTO
Posted 8/3/2013 21:04 (#3246194 - in reply to #3245844)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


WC MN		There are people with over 200 bpa every year. Places had it last year. I guess based on having a good crop coming on my acres last July I should have been bearish with your rationale?
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mjl
Posted 8/3/2013 17:13 (#3245856 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: RE: Reality is.......


Minnesota		If most the farmers were from east of the Mississippi, It doesn't surprise me at all.
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redoak
Posted 8/3/2013 18:02 (#3245908 - in reply to #3245856)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


deep SW On.		In our little area of Ontario I would say soys average ,corn above but neither crop looks as big as on July 1 as we have been to wet....other areas on better ground that looked tough from too much rain at the end of June have really turned around,, good ground seems to recover a lot better than our clay loams....too make a guess -soys-trendline corn probably 10+ of trendline......always variables--confirmed winter wheat yields from less than 60 feed grade too141 bu acre + #2
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wsnhmr
Posted 8/3/2013 18:01 (#3245904 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


There's a big difference between traders and analysts looking at the broad weather pattern through out the heart of the corn belt and an individual farmer with marginal ground on the edge of a drought trying to predict yields..backyarditis on NAT,nomo was picking tops and bottoms last year
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Decker
Posted 8/3/2013 22:32 (#3246353 - in reply to #3245625)
Subject: Re: Reality is.......


NWMo		% attending with irrigation?
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