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SW MN | Since I started this below, I had probably better say more. I was a kid back then in 1974. Don't make me too old now! We came back from the MN state fair on Labor day. It used to be an Ag fair. (Those from MN know what I means by this!) That night we had an unexpected freeze here Labor Day eve. I Remember Dad being bummed like I had never seen him the next day. We had over night lost half of our crop, on all acres. We didn't keep yield records then like we do now but my county NASS stats back me up on this. That was the first time I knew what "silage corn" smelled like. Corn and beans both took quite a hit. If I remember right, the freeze went into Ohio. I haven't dug into the stats that far yet. I do not know how planting went that year, but I do know to this day anyone that lived through that event, measured frost possibilities and yield potential by that year. It was one of those events you never forgot. All the older farmers that would help us would always remind us young bucks that "It's not in the bin yet, and until it is don't count on what you see out there for yield. Anything can still happen." It also seemed to me that September frosts/freezes were not uncommon that decade.
I am not trying to be a bull or a bear here. Just trying to state the facts as facts. "It's not in the bin yet," rings loud more and more everyday here at least in the upper Midwest. If you've noticed MN mega bears have been a little more quiet lately about the huge crop. Maybe reality is what's out the window and staring them in the face a little.
So what's this got to do with marketing? The forecast for us two weeks out is for a cooler August. Not what we need as heat is energy. Plus we have not had a measurable rain since June 23. Last time I checked with agronomy, that's not a good combination. Knee high beans and corn tasseling on August 1 make me a little bit nervous with the odds of bringing this crop to maturity and hence our massive yield potential. And we "here" are supposedly the "garden spot of Minnesota"??? To me we are getting behind the eight ball as far as bringing this crop "here" up to average. Can it be done? Sure, if we don't freeze until like November. But what are the chances for that realistically? So market accordingly. Maybe that's why there's not an overabundance forward contracted at least here. I know you "I" state boys are bragging about your crops this year, and rightly so. Last year we heard stories of corn getting disced down like in August, so yes it is your turn. But that doesn't make pp fields here any better yielding. Last year we carried the freight to get to 12 B. bus. Any September frost will hurt us. A Labor Day frost will give us a Big goose egg. So you guys down south had better yield like never before so we can at least hold our own. I don't like the trend I see here for weather. We just won't do our share here like last year. Grain movement could get real interesting in 45 days the way this thing is shaping up.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are only from a guy with "boots on the ground" and who almost lost his pliers in a crack between the rows today. These comments are not to be construed as marketing advise as there is no commission involved unfortunately. | |
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1974 : Sept Freeze: Upper Midwest Soybeans Take a Hit
