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JonSCKs
Posted 7/25/2013 15:39 (#3228864 - in reply to #3228751)
Subject: Nobody knows..


Market participants will not bid beyond what historical norms are..  At the time Last spring we were delivering $+.70'ish basis.. the March.. Last load was $8.13.  Even today basis bids (haven't changed much but probably will some..) are around the +$1.70 to +$2.00 level.

All the while new crop offers have been within normal ranges..  around option.. +.15 so the cliff has grown through the summer.  It's a long ways from $8.00 to $5.00.. or whatever the bid offer is today for N/C..

The thing that I wonder about.. is given the size of demand.. We use 150+ myn per week average here in Q4 and we ramp up to 290'ish come Q1.. THAT.. is ALOT of grain!!!  Roughly 3.8 byn in Q1 600 myn Q4 and 1,160 myn in Dec.. = 5,560 myn bushels to pry loose from now till Jan 1st.  40% of the crop!!!

Sure.. you can pay up and source a couple of loads to GET TO New Crop... Then what? 

This thing is gonna be a dog fight all the way into January... jmho.. "I could be wrong."

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