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Ontario's middle east | Thx PR, I've used these seasonals for 15 yrs now as a guide and then pull the trigger using technicals when its "time" to sell. The best thing about using seasonals is it takes emotion and price prediction out of your marketing plan. Its much easier to pull the trigger by calendar marks then price levels. I became a student of Roy Smiths aka Soyroy many years ago and gained a great deal of respect for his simple country boy outlook. I was a young punk back then trying to make life too complicated with option strategies et al and scoffed at how some old fool from NE could just sell certain times of the year and be successful. After watching what he did for a couple a years on agriculture.com I had different opinion of who the fool was....just one of the many lumps on the back my head. I would encourage guys without a plan to set aside some bushels to follow this strategy, any plan is better than no plan. The next major sell stop for this strategy (and one of the most reliable) is to sell ahead of the Sept wasde report. There is often some frost scare premium built in at that time that vanishes as we head towards the harvest low first week of Oct. I really don't think we will see any risk premium for the late planting built in to the market until that time frame. Its a wait and see for traders who see way too fun in shorting the snot out of it right now. Mark your calendar come late august there might be new game in town and this year there might something to fear.... | |
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Seasonal Grain Price Patterns
