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North Central Illinois | Thanks for posting those charts. Pretty much tells the story we are all familiar with. More years than not corn tops before the 4th of July and struggles and wanders until harvest. If a surprise develops at harvest you get some fireworks. If not we continue lower into spring. I really think the bears on this site are being a little premature in celebrating the death of the corn bull. Granted we are in a downtrend now and it is never wise to buck the trend but I think some caution might be in order. If you take Iowa and MN out of the picture things elsewhere in general are looking pretty good. Of course there are spots here and there that are struggling, but you have that any year. Usually on July 6th tassels are popping and we are starting to look at the crop and wonder about yield. This year we are about ten days to two weeks behind with a very long way to go before the crop hits the bin floor. It would still seem reasonable that the USDA will take 2 million to 2.5 million acres off of plantings by the August report. If they fail to reduce acres at all then look out below. At that point we then have to rely on a yield surprise at harvest to rescue hope of a rally. If heat and dryness does not develop in the next two to three weeks it will be a hard sell to make a weather scare a reality for the rest of the summer. In general the corn producing areas are much better watered now than they were last year at this time. Granted there are some poor root systems out there this year but all in all the moisture situation is much better. It can still get critically dry but time will run out for that possibility in a couple of weeks too. I'm holding out some hope that we can still stage a rally in December corn at some point but time is running out and we need to plan accordingly. If we continue lower there will be a lot of corn stored this fall with the idea that the markets just HAVE to go higher because the crop isn't out there. That could work out quite well or it could be a disaster. I hope guys are prepared to keep that corn in good condition because it could be a long wait to get the price they think it is worth. | |
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Seasonal Grain Price Patterns
