Corn traded over $8.20 last fall on a weekly chart.. (A good chunk traded at positive basis values to THAT!!  Personally I sold $8.81 delivered.. )  New crop 13 is over $3.00 LOWER than that at this time... If we had similar price levels than yes.. we could see similar demand.. but that is CLEARLY NOT the case.

Over 15% of the nation's corn crop is raised to my south and west.. going into year 3 of the Big D.. SW Kansas is reporting dryland wheat yields of around 5 to 15 bu per acre.. Over HALF of Kansas corn production is from DRYLAND...as well as the other fringe areas.. So I am NOT in the 150+ bu nationwide yield camp.. EVEN IF WE ADDED 25 bu per acre over LAST YEAR.. which HERE will not be the case.. that is STILL ONLY 148.. or.. a smidge over a 13 bil bu crop.

We had about a week of 105'ish temps last week that scalded a lot of mostly dryland (but also some irrigated) corn acres.  Once again a fair amount of dryland corn production could be baled or grazed or abandoned in this neck of the woods.  Heck some of it didn't even get planted past USDA's JUNE 1st acreage estimate in IOWA.. and Minny.. so there is still room for USDA's planted acreage number to come down.

Furthermore, there is room for the stocks number.. which is bullish.. to come down some more.. it's a long time to harvest with the later plantings.   I'm sure as Ray J has noted that the first couple of barges loaded with corn will be headed UP the Mississippi.. and that will hold some users till later in the fall when the rest of the crop comes off.

I refer you to the wheat stocks number and the large amount diverted to the feed bunk.. Wheat is about the ONLY grain that we have right now to feed, mill, and export... and in some areas there's NOT MUCH of that...  even. 

5 bu wheat.. flat out doesn't fill a bin very fast... It takes 200 acres to fill a truck at that rate.  A good chunk was abandoned.

I'm still at a 13 bil bu corn crop.. 12.6 demand and a carry out of around a billion.. with a depleted wheat crop of around 550 carry out going into 2014..

At some point.. (and $5.00 corn will do it..) acres go back to other crops. 

The bulk of the down move is already baked in...  imho.


Also attention Monsanto: at $4.00 corn I'm planting ZIPPO corn next year...