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Red River Valley | Beg. stocks number is to low and use numbers are to high IMHO
add to that harvested percent is at about 89% vs norm at 93ish % then factor into that number the realization that silage numbers do not very year on year they are pretty static. meaning the more acres one plants the smaller the percent that is cut to silage.
If we get a supply number at 13998 -- ending will be 2bb+
some ending stocks math for sept. 2013- the qtrly corn stocks were peg at 2.764 with use last year 4th qtr at 2.170 if we are able to reproduce last years use numbers than ending stocks would be at your 600 mb
of the 2.17 bb of use last year 245mb were exports for the first 4 weeks of exports inspections of the 4th qrt. of 2013 we have shipped out near 28mb of corn meaning that we will need to ship 210 mb in the next 8 weeks.
so we will have to avg. each week of the last 2/3's of the 4th qrt in exports more than we shipped in total for the first 1/3 of the 4th qtr. - this in the face of another record safirnia corn crop from Brazil .
I do thank you for your numbers I just don't agree with some of them. | |
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My numbers game
