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| When I see the ending stocks and the ending ratio so low, that appears to be a market explosion. You need to start someplace like trend line yields, but weather will hold the face cards and Joker. A prior post tends to believe the La Nina to last a long time and to have an impact on alot of states. A 5-10% reduction in yield in 2 of the top corn growing states, let alone either an increase in yield loss or drought area or both, would create panic. Elwyn Taylor, a noted Ia. State Univ. meterologist/climatologist is suggesting a 70% likelyhood of below trend line yields because of La Nina. A 5-6% reduction in yield could wipe out the carry over. That is why you have been saying we need to be putting in perimeter fence and look out for soccer moms. Will we be the Indians or Custer at the Little Big Horn? Thanks for your numbers. | |
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Working Model for 2008-2010
