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Will the government "stay the course."
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Jim
Posted 2/12/2008 01:19 (#307538 - in reply to #307095)
Subject: ethanol spin this week


Driftless SW Wisconsin

I was very disappointed to hear on the radio that a group of "researchers" published a study in "Science" magazine that basically said ethanol is bad for the environment and increases greenhouse gas emissions....

"What was that I just heard????"

Well if you get into the detail a bit more, the study's logic is that because of ethanol production in the US the US is producing fewer beans, therefore raising soybean prices and therefore encouraging more soybean production in South America which therefore leads to the clearing and burning of the tropical rainforests which therefore release massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere....

How's that for "Science" eh?

Sounds more like a hatchet job to me.

What this whole line of logic misses is that the world has an increasing demand for agricultural products of all kinds, especially oil crops like soybeans.

As the demand for beans around the world the price of beans will increase, just as it will do for other crops as population and nutrition levels increase.

The burning of the Amazon forests is an important issue but not one that the American corn grower can be expected to remedy! Those folks have a slash and burn system in some areas, grow crops for a few years then move on, as I understand it.

I'm sure there are some folks who would like to see $2 corn, $4 beans, excess production purchased by the government for giveaway and all those rural folks in their place while middle men buy cheap ag raw materials.

$2 corn means corn is selling for about 4 CENTS a pound. Even $5.50 corn means corn is still selling for only about 10 CENTS per pound. That is still cheap for a very useful product. Beans at $12/bu are selling at about 20 CENTS per pound.

At today's price of about $94 per 42 gallon barrel at 7 lb/gal, oil is selling for about 32 CENTS per pound.

Today's ag prices are not really out of line on a per pound basis. Blaming ethanol for raising the price of beans and therefore causing deforestation and CO2 emissions is the type of "Science" done when you want a headline, not the truth.

I spoke to a group recently including Dr Alex Farrell of UC Berkeley who seemed skeptical on corn based ethanol but I think we got him at least starting to think a bit differently with new corn growing technologies.

Corn grain based ethanol makes a lot of sense when you can raise it using 30% less fertilizer and maybe 80% less fossil fuel with some types of strip tillage. Grain based ethanol leaves the vast majority of the organic matter/carbon/nutrients in the residue right there on top actually improving the soil in addition to improving the local rural communities and providing local markets for local production.

Dr Farrell is also recommending making ethanol from waste materials which makes a lot of sense.

This article in "Science" magazine is baloney. It is blaming the American farmer for failures of the political processes in South America to control deforestation. These are complex issues but can not be blamed on US corn based ethanol production!

We in the corn belt do need to be aware of the fact that there are ways of growing corn that use less fossil fuel energy than others - and therefore affect the overall energy balance of corn ethanol - but I believe the economics of higher fuel and fertilizer costs will gradually lead growers to more efficient use of inputs.  About 50% of the energy used to produce a gallon of corn based ethanol is used in the fertilizer and fuel required to produce the corn used as a raw material.

If we can cut fertilizer use by 1/3 (from typical university recommendations) and fuel usage by a factor of 5 or more (proven with some versions of strip tillage compared to full width conventional tillage) and leave all residue on the surface to maintain and build OM slowly rather than worked and releasing CO2 into the atmosphere, we can produce corn grain based ethanol prettydarn efficiently from an energy standpoint. Couple this with new plant processes and I believe corn based ethanol will be around for a long time.

Articles like this one in "Science" magazine can not be allowed to shape national policy towards corn based ethanol. as always, jmho.

Jim at Dawn

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