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| Maybe, but we probably won't have an emergency. Rather than the food supply being in danger, we'll probably have huge surpluses with the government throwing up their hands in frustration not knowing what to do with it. It would be very easy - especially when they are trying to make cuts to avoid disaster - to decide that they should not be in the income guarantee business when it comes to farming.
Think about when all the major purchases historically were made in farm country - nice houses, tile lines, machinery, etc. Hasn't it mostly come during and following the major highs in the cycles (1917-20, 1946-48, 1973-74)? Is it really going to be different this time? Remember the talk about buying land, because they aren't making any more of it (1970s into the very early 1980s)? Remember when Volcker came in and told us that he was going to control inflation - and no one believed him? Remember when Paul Ehrlich was talking (in the 70s) about mass starvation that was right on our doorstep?
I don't think we should assume that government will have the resources to bail us out again. Or the will to print money to bail us out - if there are massive surpluses of grain. Also, if credit evaporates, I don't know if it matters how much money the government creates. | |
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USA Today: farmland prices: Is the bubble about to burst
