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Central Missouri | I benefited greatly from subscribing. Its 250 bucks a year to get timing dates. The last update was Mar 9 and below are a few of the the comments on corn : At the same time tttp put this out the macd crossed higher which is a great confirmer for me. I didn't put the dates for possible tops in the corn market but they are included in the update along with all the charts and chart commentary which is from a different angle than any other marketer. Its 250 bucks a year. Go here .... https://www.rulonenterprises.com/ and below Join Rulon there is a join now box to click on.
... UNPRICING NEW CROP (or owning old crop feed) CORN HEDGES
This week is the first time in a long time that I just cannot help becoming bullish corn.
NOT because I know what will happenin the future, but rather because of what I know has already happened in the past. By the past, I mean...THE drought. The normal
35 day vertical drought rally. The completed NORMAL declines into lows in late Feb, or early March. The extremely NORMAL collapse in wheat in years following a
summer drought. It would seem that no one else in theworld knows what NORMAL is, even though the data is available to everyone for free. Even on the psycholo
gical front, themarket has been assured by ALL the EXPERTS that it can count on the US farmer to plant almost 100mil acres of corn. My
point is that “the market” has built a huge acreage number into the price for new corn. While I agree we will plant a lot ofacres, it seems very unlikely thatthe planting intentions report can
exceed the expectation and thusbe bearish for new corn.
For old corn, it just refuses to go lower. This IS BULLISH, at least for a while!Today’s action after the report is very bullish old crop corn.
My point is simply...the corn market is positioned perfectly for rally. A rally that in old corn could be quite dynamic. In
new corn, it will be a normal seasonal timing rally. $6 is nice target, but will be hard to actually get there.
Regardless, it seems like it is time for a recovery. Since we are still extremely hedged, it is easy for us to get neutral
and wait. This makes us like every other farmer in American, except that we have a $1 hedge gain banked in the hedges. Remember we use Cargill Focal
Points to unprice grain so there is no margin exposure to our cash flow.
With such an emotional low today near the end of the expected low TIME , we have a great point to manage risk around. For old corn, we went to 100% covered a years worth of hog needs in the July today and will use today’s low for a stop. This week’s lows should hold.
There is A LOT of timing backing this up as well. Not picture perfect like the hogs or bonds or coffee, but it is important to take Quigley’s curren
t timing cycle seriously. He does good work. Like of all us, we are wrong sometimes and so is he (like his expectation for another vertical summer rally in 2013..silly since we just did that last year), but for now I like the timing, the psych indicators, COT data, and an emotional day today. Just a great place to take some risk.
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7.50 corn next week
