The Ukraine has the potential to produce a lot of corn, however there are many obstacles that will take a long time to fix before they approach US yields and quality. We in the US don't usually realize what a tremendous support system and infrastructure is required to produce the corn crops we do.

A 200 bu/a (12.4 t/ha) corn crop, which the Ukraine is certainly capable of in areas of the country, requires enormous resources to get that fertilized, planted, grown, harvested, dried, stored, hauled and into a ship for export without losing a large portion of the preseason yield potential. I don't think the government can dictate a consistent 12 t/ha corn crop.

It takes a lot of entrepreneurial, motivated people right down to the planter operator. The Ukraine has a lot of good people. However in the US the guy running the planter usually has a stake in the operation. On the large Ukraine farms, the guy running the planter and other field operations usually has very little stake in the operation.

I believe they will ramp up corn production, however the world market is also increasing along with and faster than population. There will be enough of a world corn market to go around.  I personally don't think this has anything to do with gmo's. China's "loans" are probably mostly chemicals (glypho?), sold for corn IOU's.

I will add a picture from my trip to the Ukraine last fall. This is probably one of the highest yielding cornfields in the northern Ukraine last year as it was part of a demonstration plot.

The Ukraine has enormous potential. It is just going to take a lot of time to realize that potential. Not a lot different from many other areas of the world outside the US.  We need to appreciate what we have here in the US. A lot of the people in the distance in the first picture are Dutch, Swiss and World Bank bankers.

People complain about our government in the US, however a trip to other countries can really make you appreciate the USA despite our faults.

Jim

Here's also a picture of a "typical" soybean field in the central Ukraine.

(IMG_1244_Ukraine cornfield 100612.jpg)

(IMG_1291_typical Ukraine soybean field in Oct 100812.JPG)

IMG_1244_Ukraine cornfield 100612.jpg (79KB - 44 downloads)

IMG_1291_typical Ukraine soybean field in Oct 100812.JPG (72KB - 45 downloads)