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West Tennessee | I work with, use, create, and discard projections every single day at my "real" job. Projections serve a useful purpose but they aren't absolutely necessary for each and every situation. I've struggled with break even costs on my operation forever. I have finally given up and don't use them to base my marketing upon even though that's probably not consultant or NAT approved. No one can answer the question what I'm supposed to do when prices don't reach my breakeven? Quit and sell everything? That would NOT have been a smart move given the last few years. What about that nice breakeven price on wheat and then the fertilizer price doubles? That doesn't work out well either.
If you make and utilize your projections then I think that's great and applaud you for doing what's best for your operation. On my operation I don't have a need for them on a regular basis. What's my plan? Make all the crop that I can make at a decent average price and hope that I will be able to pay all my loans and bills. So far it's worked out fine and I feel sure that it will continue to do so or at least until the bank won't loan me any more money. :-) Since I'm all dryland my worst case projection would mean that I should quit now.
Since another poster mentioned listening instead of writing stuff down as a way that people do things differently; it took me years in college to figure that one out. I learn much better from listening than writing down something that I'll never look at again. Each person is different. Some people (my wife) are overachievers and can go nonstop all the time, and some are not.....and in spite of what some people thing...that's ok.
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Cost projections....for the folks that don't do them.
