Current cash prices have a dollar premium the wheat vs Corn.. NO.. I repeat NO.. Wheat feeding going on here now that I know of..

Furthermore, cash wheat offers have some "pencil sharpening" going on.. if asked for.

Previous two falls 2010 and 11 had precip totals to date since Sept 1 of 4.60" and 7.17".. 2012 to date we are sitting at 2.69"  From here all the way down to the Oklahoma border.. emergence is an issue with some locations as much as 40%+ unemerged.  After two consecutive years of roughly half the normal precip.. the soil profile is DRY.. all the way down.. 6' plus of powder dirt.. sunbaked dry.

Where we were fortunate enough to establish a stand we are now witnessing emerged wheat stands going backwards showing more bare ground over time.. we need moisture (obviously) as well as cooler temps.. the warm fall temps have not allowed the wheat to go dormat so it continues to burn through surface moisture.

I could post the pic's if you don't believe me...

I've seen cattle pastured out on CRP, Corn Stalks, Sorghum stalks, Soybean residue, even a fenced in yard.. if it doesn't have a fence.. they have baled it.. so the push for feedstuffs.. anything of any nutritional value is in demand.  Not much wheat is being pastured as it is too dry to offer much and could adversely affect the stand.

Of the three dry years.. this one may in fact be off to the worse start yet.  Three years ago the bins were full.. that is no longer the case.

The Spring of 2008 found buyers without sellers.. we could very easily see the exact same conditions as nobody has really tested the sell side of the markets.  What price is it going to take to part inventory from tight hands?

That being said I am currently delivering on previously established contracts.. pulling on and off the scale.. virtually no lines.  I'm thinking about holding the last bin back for seed wheat just in case.  Some of my fields are so dry that I'm even scared just to walk out on them.. as they could blow.. so for what it's worth.. that's my honest assesment.. it may be time to start thinking about buying in contracts...???

Are you looking at 2013.. or 2014.. before that inventory can be replaced...???  This drought has kind of had a pulse to it.. it builds and then breaks.. builds and breaks.. currently it is bearing down on us.. it's hard to imagine that we are two weeks from Christmas.. today with a southerly breeze.. it felt like we needed to get the planter out as corn season is just around the corner..  and this is DECEMBER... in shirt sleaves.

The markets are totally disconnected to the conditions.. IF it rains.. the shorts will escape.. if not.. they will get pummeled... there just isn't the inventory nor the growing conditions to stop it.. if a panic starts.. it's gonna run a long ways before the herd turns.

jmho.. could be wrong.