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western colorado | The problem with math and any ag business is it turns out to be a guess no matter what numbers you use. Figure out your lowest possible inputs vs highest returns and vise versa. Can you live with the risk of the worst case scenario while hoping for the best. I try to figure my risk as being better than break even. So for instance fats would have to hit $.85 for break even to occur for me. Am I comfortable with that.....yes. On the flip side is Mark Wright, $1.50-$1.80 fats, as time wears on these numbers have more chance of happening. When will they happen is way more important than if. That my friends is the rub, and weather has more to do with it than anything else. So moral of the story is figure out how to calculate the weather, that would make some money Hahaha. Seriously just allow a modest cushion to bottom out on, hope for the best and never count on it. | |
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