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| Have you guys noticed that our market seems to be all or nothing. We go great guns for a while "the world is ending all is lost" to reruns of "the origins of lint". Fundamentally it's really likely we'll get a fairly normal crop next year if not a really good one - that's obviously bearish. The question is where the 'whales' think the floor should be. If the whale is ADM corn has a $3 in front of it, if it's not quite end users maybe it's more. I'm hopeful for one year where yield is good and prices hang in just good enough to appear to be a good deal for end users and still big money for the grain guys - is that $5.50 to $6?
On the other hand I've been fairly aggressively selling for 13 around $6 to cover some cash rent negotiations where the term 'poker face' definitely didn't apply to me. Naturally, since the world is just one big experiment with me as the subject, as I reach 80% of my sales goal, corn will start adding a dollar a month until I'm quickly out (probably on the first dollar increase). I say this obviously tongue in cheek, but I think more than one of us feel that way (just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean folks are not out to get me!)
Great question and we probably face the largest set of possibilities of our farming careers. | |
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Simple poll... 2013 grains. Bullish or bearish
