I don't have a friggin clue. Been farming for 35 plus years, using hedging and options for over 20, attended marketing classes over the years, used to chart crops till I gave up and my best answer is most if not all don't have a clue either. And if they do we will not know who those rare people are till well after the fact and then will not know if it was just dumb luck or skill for another 10 or twenty years till they gain the fame of the likes of Warren Buffett (sorry, couldn't think of any famous commodity picker so had to use a stock example..... are there any famous commodity guys?).

Good luck in your pursuit though . that's the fun part anyway.

John