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| Your Crazy if you think the Highs are in with certainty.. We got 12" of Moisture during the growing season of the 12 HRW Wheat Crop.. Right now we're sitting at just over an inch. With large areas that have yet to even emerge.
What makes you think that after 2 short crops and a forecast that offers "more of the same" that things have changed?
Most here are comparing this to the 1930's and the 1950's... 1954 was dry.. 55 was a repreive and 56 was just as bad as 54.. some say 11 was 54, 12..55 and we got this next year to get through.. The 1950's drought really didn't break until about 57 or 58.. We could have another 3 or 4 years of this.. and all the water history guru's back this up.. It was even drier back in the late 1800's...
So the funds have liquidated some positions.. over the past couple of weeks.. that doesn't mean they couldn't come running back in the future...
My point is that until the fundamentals change.. what basis is there for making the statement that it's over.. It sure doesn't look over from this part of the woods. A lot of the beanies raised in Ks are dryland.. I actually think there's room for USDA to go DOWN on their next report.. the STOCKS report is going to tell the tail.. WHO has INVENTORY.. ?!? Because a lot has been clean out just to get to this point.
Granted.. some areas had a good crop.. now the markets job is to get the production from those areas to the deficit areas.. places like here.
It's 10.5 MONTHS until the next harvest... that's a LONG time to hold your breath needing someone to puke grain for you.
You could be right.. but here there's not much to puke even if people thought things were over.. and I'm not sure that most believe that.. I know that I don't.
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options market is mispricing futures, ja
