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| Option 1. Buy a one way ticket to Jerusalem and get ready for world war 3
Option 2. Sell everything. Buy gold coins sit on a 5 gallon bucket and wait
Option 3. Go long corn
I choose option 3.
Corn has been in a dead dog market since harvest with export rationing prices, but not high enough to ration domestic use to the extent needed. Several price breaks down as low as $7.05 Dec.Which gave endusers a reasonable point to get coverage. We had 2 bullish reports on september stocks report and oct monthly usda that saw prices surge then fail. November report was as expected with bearish beans unable to pull corn lower. Enough time has now gone by since harvest rush to give endusers reason to start coming to the plate soon,but with heavy selling at harvest this could stay flat another week but I dought it . Corn is heading higher into Jan report |
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| Old corn should have an 8 in front of it and new 13 should have a 7 to draw more acres. I'm just not sure I'm willing to bet my money on it just yet. Too many other crazy things in the world and EPA has yet to speak about ethonal. I would expect something by years end. Not sure if it will effect corn prices much, but it sure could for a few days. With Obama winning Iowa we may just get a quite wait and see report. |
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New Mexico | Think the harvested acres ( jan report ) is the real bull base for the corn move thru 013. course keep in mind even though those acre likely going to be low, in the numbers jumble yields could possibly be raised say 20 bu to supposedly balance the whole deal ( real corn or not, it's a paper govt market supply game ) |
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WC MN | Are you still predicting on 8 billion bushel crop? |
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New Mexico | New crop is in the flat 9 b range. say 1/3 less than the 011 crop. |
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WC MN | Your thoughts are about 1 billion bu or so was pulled forward from the 11' crop then to get us to a 10+ billion bushel crop? |
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New Mexico | Only be in the 8.8 range too. ( irregardless this crop is one where the truth will never be known. mo ). |
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WC MN | Ok just curious how you were thinking. Why do you believe the USDA is 1.5 billion bu off? |
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New Mexico | . |
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WC MN | Roger that |
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west central Iowa | You're right, if they lower harvested acres they will have to raise the yield per acre. |
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20 miles west of Indianapolis Indiana | dont waste your money on the plane ticket.... the govt will probably be offering free plane rides allong with a bag of MRE's for breakfast lunch and dinner...... |
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North Central Illinois | You're full of baloney. This crop is over 10 billion bushel. You were wrong all summer. Get used it and move on. |
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New Mexico | Been short the market all summer, and still are. |
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WC MN | So can we assume that you are long the market then using that logic? |
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New Mexico | To supposedly prevent famine. it' their same ole deal. same diametric keeps producers short the market thus have to deliver in whatever. heck if harvested drops to 70, that supposed yield is gonna be 150 to 160 on those. LOL
Edited by Markwright 11/12/2012 00:10
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New Mexico | Whatever you deem appropriate ie logic or etc.. keep in mind i simply won't lower myself to the pee poor pr manners illinois steve and others continuously use on nat. |
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New Mexico | Offering free keys to heaven might be the next best socialist plan for the usa. |
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onida, south dakota | if the corn crop is only 9 billion bushels it isn't trading like it..........too many ethanol plants and feed operations still running too.............if it is actually that tight things should get very wild............
i think with the decrease we have had in volatility it might make more sense to play corn long via options instead of futures........if it is going substaintly higher you could really get a big bang for your buck with out of the money options .........but i don't see the crop under 10 billion moreless 9 billion..........nor do i see the super strong demand.............i see some small good signs of demand here and there...............but not enough to get super bullish ...........lots of potential remain for the grains............but in my opinion we need headline stories for the funds to get involved with AND solid demand.............you can find lots of negative demand arguements |
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20 miles west of Indianapolis Indiana | Ya... just sign here and relinquish your future Social Security Payments in exchange for this McDonald's gift certificate and free key to heaven |
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New Mexico | Balance the borrowed out ss funds we've sucked up over time on all kinds of other social help programs ( crop ins and ethanol both come to mind ). |
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New Mexico | Central bank diametric in the usa tends to "capitalize" such things as oil. However that same diametric acts to long term de capitalize (cheapen ) things like food if and when at all possible. sooo if oil goes to the moon then corn gets a free ride up. if not then corn is just corn. |
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northwest tennessee | Oil and fuel always seem to hit the low of the year in November so odds are we are up from here. |
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western iowa,by Denison | fool's paradise-adjust your operation to fit-market doesnt have to do anything-not a lot of profit for end user''s at $7 plus corn-me no speak navaho |
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North Central Illinois | Yes I am short the market. I am sold out at an average of $7.25 on a 172 bu crop. That price includes insurance bu and dollars. It certainly isn't the best average or biggest gross on this board but considering the summer we went thru I don't think that is too bad. I don't have to haul anything this winter when its cold and snowing either. Bird in the hand so to speak. I'm just glad this year is over and ready to move onto 2013. Despite what some were hoping I covered my forward sold bu and had 100 bu per acre to spare. I am long with a few calls just in case things would take off and run but I don't have too many of those either. So yeah I am short the market. So what? If you think my manners are pee poor I'm sorry. I'm just tired of you coming on here with outrageous predictions and acting like you really know something about raising corn in the cornbelt. I think you better stick to feeding hay in New Mexico. If memory serves me I think you were calling for bullish reports for both September and October with markets sharply higher for a least a week after both. How did that work out? About like all that oil rain we were supposed to get after the Gulf oil spill.
I have no idea where markets are going from here. At this point I can see more downside potential than upside but am not yet willing to be a seller of 2013. I know some on this board only want to hear bullish talk but at this point I really don't know where we go from here. Obviously, neither do you. Good day sir. |
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Flora IL | Just saying |
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| Any of these three options carry risk. But as I speak tonight beans still getting hammered corn is barely phased. Beans making short term lows. If corn cant be taken down much tonight we have turned the corner. |
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New Mexico | I'm not much of a believer in other's reports, never have been. btw corn only been grown bout 12,000 more years here in the sw than places like il.
Edited by Markwright 11/11/2012 22:20
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North Central Illinois | My memory may not be what it used to be but I still know BS when I hear it and time and time again I hear it in your posts. |
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New Mexico | Bother your immature side, then ignore em. Mo. |
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| What does not having corn have to do with the ability or inability to "go long"? "Going long" means you are buying corn. |
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New Mexico | Sell hats you have to be where the heads are. |
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North Central Illinois | I'm sorry, but I don't think there is anything immature about calling someone out for talking nonsense. Your posts betray your ignorance of how production agriculture really works in the corn belt. I know you are offended but I'm just calling it as I see it. From your perch in New Mexico you were telling us all summer about the impending 8 billion bushel or less corn crop. That strikes me as off the wall for someone so far removed from the situation. |
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New Mexico | Nonsensical than you bigtime corn production experts and your govt talking a 14 b crop thru June. |
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North Central Illinois | I was never in the 14 billion bushel crowd especially n June. Get your facts straight. I said several times for two months this summer that I was unwilling to bet the farm on what the national yield would be. My GUESS at the time though was that we would stay slightly above 10 billion. This was based upon what I saw and heard from others across the corn belt. I think I was in a much better position to judge the national crop than you were. I don't consider myself a corn production expert, but next to you I am a corn production genius. Better stick to what you know. Whatever that is.
For what is is worth I am much more concerned about 2013 than I was 2012. No subsoil moisture. Last year tiles were running good at this time of year. |
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| Illinois Steve - 11/11/2012 21:24 My memory may not be what it used to be but I still know BS when I hear it and time and time again I hear it in your posts. Steve , you said this>>>>>>>> I'm just tired of you coming on here with outrageous predictions and acting like you really know something about raising corn in the cornbelt. I think you better stick to feeding hay in New Mexico Steve, Mark was not born and raised in Hay country ..... try the northen cornbelt next time......... |
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North Central Illinois | That may be so, but he is pretty far removed from corn country at this point in his life and his comments reflect it. Many of his remarks are so far fetched and off the wall that they really suggest he has little knowledge of how we grow and market corn in this part of the country. That's okay but let's not pretend we are something we aren't. The man is no dummy but seems ill suited for farming. |
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SW Iowa | Come on Ill steve. GET A LIFE.
If you had your way, the only one posting in marketing would be you! |
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SC Iowa | All you need to track the North American crop progress is a computer with favorites consisting of AgTalk, Barchart Grains and the Weather radar. Plus the time and desire to do so. |
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North Central Illinois | Come on Scratchy. How often do I post here? Not all that often. I chime in from time to time and read a lot. I just can't keep quiet when I hear something that is absolute nonsense. I don't care if it's Markwright or your god MT. I've actually read a few things from MT from time to time that made a little sense. This guy? Not so much. |
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SE IA | Illinois Steve - 11/12/2012 09:15
I just can't keep quiet .
No chit? |
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western iowa,by Denison | I think then Mark Wright has done his job then,he spoke navaho or whatever that is that he speaks and got you riled up Steve-somehow I think that is what he is good at,though I have never seen any pictures of his operation he talks a big talk,seem's to read a lot and is a optimistic fellow-dont really know,but I would not let any of his comments change your idea's-think I remember him saying the fat market was going higher and I bought a June fat cattle futures and payed my due's to his wrong advice-so now I look at Mark Wright's comment's as pure comedy!There's a 50-50 chance he is wrong so be it,I'm sure he has no sleep loss at all,will unless He is smoking the peace pipe,listening to John Denver at his campfire!
Maybe he will get a job for the bank's that borrow all those top producer guy's money-surely they will keep borrowing money to those 40,000 acre farmers as he tell's all the loan officiers at Well's Fargo everything is going higher! Meanwhile,I will just put another quarter in the juke box-but nobody else is going to dance with my wife! |
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North Central Illinois | That is good advice Garvo. You've put things in perspective for me. It seems that a lot of people kind of buy into his spiel and after a while I just can't keep still. I've always been the kind of person to speak up if someone is talking BS. I think you are right. The guy doesn't mean any harm but is out there in la la land. I'll try to lighten up and let him have his fun. Thanks again for the advice. |
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New Mexico | Have certain market ideas that may not agree with other folks. how those other folks handle disagreement generally speaks for their upbringing in their particular area of the country. |
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North Central Illinois | You keep referring to my upbringing. My upbringing taught me to be honest. Honestly your market ideas are so far off the reservation they aren't even credible. That's all I'm getting at. You keep throwing all this off the wall crap out there and expect nobody to question it? Come on. Quit hiding from the issue by questioning my upbringing. You have been wrong a lot and apparently have cost people some money. |
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New Mexico | It appears that your main modus operandi so to speak is to "shoot the messenger" should said not agree with you. ( and you've done that to many others here on nat in the past ). honest is the truth, btw. |
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western iowa,by Denison | well I cant really blame Mark-im a big boy and thought if he was right I would enjoy a little income,I posted on stock talk my daily adventure and it was a good learning tool for me-Mark is just reporting his thought's-wacky sometimes-I just show what I do and give reason's for my thought's-I have been wrong a lot,but I still swing and try to get a hit-I'm sure Mark would be a colorful addtion to our round robin late nite Templton rye samplier's,though I think he drink's some navaho beer-and I do not know if he knows how to pour concrete?
Maybe best to approach it that Mark Wright is alway's right and we no nothin-!Best be the guy in the old pick-up that can write a check-then a whipper snapper that knows it all,yup alway's said I'm the youngest and dumbest in my family |
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North Central Illinois | I call a spade a spade. I don't call people out that present reasonable or plausible scenarios as they relate to marketing, even if I don't necessarily agree with them. You have gone off the radar time and time again with off the wall crap. Whether its the sub 8 billion bushel corn crop, oil rain, or any of the number of other whoppers you have come up with over the years. Try being a little bit realistic. |
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Flora IL | Ill buy corn when it gets to four dollars. |
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| I will too. I'll probably be buying before that though, hogs gotta eat. |
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