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| Yup. Except it is never easy. There is so much intermarket spreading in these markets...never can tell who is doing what to who. Now, pay close mind here...not lecturing but--March options represent opening of navigation. IF WE ARE STARTING the 'demand cycle' of this deal....March over May in old crop....if this becomes the trend it means the commercials are holding and/or coming after the March & if we have a lot of country origination elevators with hedges in the march (shorts)--the heat may soon be on...have to start watching the gulf basis. If this is the case & we have a bunch of speculators short the march (if this trend continues) it will get active occasionally. If you still have new crop wheat to hedge (short) be out in the December of 08 & on those days when the spreaders cover shorts in NC....use those hard spots to sell. The ANGUISH may just be starting. I predict every one of us will get some interesting experience before this thing is done. THIS IS NO PREDICTION YET, as it is just one day....but be alert. I used to be a spread trader & it is a special game...could care less about about the daily price swings...it is arbitrage of the PENDING demand, visible supplies and 'who might be stuck.' I used to devote a lot of time--long ago--to determine who might be positioned wrong in the market....then push a little bit & help them make up their minds on getting out. As my spouse frequently & willingly tells people, I could get pretty obnoxious when I was on a roll....I've calmed down a lot now though. Too old. I have to add, my spouse still views me as obnoxious most of the time, except I know I am not. Too much espresso today.
Edited by SeniorCitizen 12/14/2007 15:28
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Old vs New Crop
