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| Son had his first Physical Rehab yesterday & emotional to watch a 6’3” young man attempt to again learn to walk. My spouse reminded me of all the prayers for him from people over the USA & a few places overseas for which we are forever grateful. My spouse who has far more active brain cells reminded me I did violate one of my rules in early October on this March wheat, kept it & rode it down for almost $2 & suggested with 7 grandchildren & some other folks very dedicated to helping others & would be a nice gesture to put that profit to some better use. I saw that late surge & difficult as I remain bullish but sold it except for one contract. Keeping everything else however.
Anyway, I trade better when I have the car wash threat hanging over my head.
Export data continues very favorable this morning. I attach a direct quote from a friend attending a meeting yesterday:
“There were some interesting comments coming out of the Pro-Exporter meeting in Chicago yesterday. To me the most important points were that strong demand for corn for ethanol is here to stay for the foreseeable future and that more of the burden of keeping the world supplied with soybeans needs to come from Brazil. That may not be happening in 2008, as price was just not high enough relative to other crops to encourage a “major shift/expansion!”
A lot of conversation this morning about the more favorable moisture conditions for the Hard Red areas.
There is a problem with lugging the baggage of experience. I have heard so many times in my life “things are different.” Never have been. Always has been a trap to buy into that type of thinking. Yesterday, I received some information about China, proprietary information. One graph tells it all. If I can figure out how to crop it & upload it, I will try sometime during the day. The potential Chinese corn situation is very sobering for the next ten months. Sobering to the extent I am going to redo some calculations on this 07/08 corn market.
The Fed is obviously taking the academic approach to the economy versus a practical approach as they rightly have inflation fears. As this housing thing unravels, I take the position, in view of long term crude oil (2009 forward) & potential international food prices the Fed is in a bit of a box.
Visiting with the son about haircuts yesterday, probably having heard this dozens of times, I recall when first in the grain business, times when we utilized “creative” financial statements for customers to help them get PCA financing & carried those folks who were in impossible net worth circumstances & very little cash around, I paid $1.25 for a haircut & a tip for the barber was unheard of; a small town & the barber was a constant talker & was always impressed with a local farmer –good manager-who always paid with a $20 bill. I usually counted out quarters. For the past years I have paid $15 & give the barber $5. Since the early 1980’s, the methodology for the government measure of inflation is extremely biased –there is another word but it is a bit harsh.
I believe it is now time to evaluate the risk/reward potential in the distant livestock markets, which I plan to do in the next few days. My nose tells me those markets now require some serious attention.
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Kept One Contract & Some Info
