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| Trying to convince myself to price another 1/3 of our new crop wheat @ $8.00 delivered. I'm a little spooked by the fact that there is only a $.10 basis on new crop wheat, most years it is .$40 or more. That is unheard of! Is the basis on new crop that strong everywhere? Do the commercials not share the sentiment that there is still a good chance we could raise a lot of winter wheat next year. Nothing wrong with $8 wheat, but I don't see the incentive for commercials to that aggressive at pursuing new crop. Leads me to suspect a gentile trap.
On a seperate topic, own some $6.80 March puts that we bought on the way up. We won't go into what they ended up costing, but I would like other's opinions on the odds that they could end up in the money. I give them very little chance now, money down the river , 10 days ago much more positive outlook.
They must be making a play on the $1 difference between the May and July contract. Although I never recall them pricing new crop off anything but July maybe they are.
Edited by Matt NCOK 12/7/2007 09:00
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Strong NC Wheat Basis
