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Jerseyville,IL | Ok what if the corn is under 100 bu per acre average and for the
sake of argument say its 90 bu average per acre .
What will happen to prices ?
What will happen to insurance claims ?
What will happen if the insurance underwriter (IE USA government ) tells the insurance
company to eat it and refuse to pay?
Will the USA scraps the insurance program or will public force it to since the public will
say that we under wrote this to guarantee cheap food ?
Since we are in a reccsion will this cause a depression on the scale of the 30s?
What happens if we have a multi year drought (ie3 or more years)?
This whole deal is shaping up to be very interesting to say the least for the USA as
a nation.
Any thoughts
JB |
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18c ditch system, winthrop Mn | China would take over our country and Tim Palenty would be our sitting dictator |
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| 90 bu. U.S. corn yeild...
**Don't know where corn futs. will top out but i suspect it will be about the same price whether its a 90 bu. or a 120 bu. crop. The price at the top will be adequate to destroy enough or more than enough demand to make the blance sheets work out. If 40% of ethanol can't make the price of corn work, the other 60% is close to in the same boat.
**Insurance claims will get paid and gov. will step in to backstop any problems with underwriters failing. What same type coverage will cost in 2013 is a whole different story!
**No thoughts on this forcing general economy to places its not already headed. Can't be helpful but doubt it alone turns things upsidedown.
**Someone posted questions about short crop - long tail today. Don't see how you paint this any other way... there's going to be a lot of demand diapear in the coming months. I personally doubt ethanol will look the same for years to come. Livestock will trim numbers out of pure necessity. Then IFand i capitolized the IF... decent weather returns and we have a normal growing season in 2013 we could have a 13 billion bu. supply matced up with a 10 billion bu. demand. Beans will have plenty to say about corn acreage in 2013 before the planters roll again.
**This is becoming an historic event and we will see some crazy things happen in the coming year. Most of which will not be good for the long term health of agriculture!
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onida, south dakota | if we get a 90 bushel an acre crop you are talking about production under 8 billion bushels............that means we will have curved another 4 billion bushels of demand................who knows how high corn will go............but if it happens look for 100 million plus acres next year.............and demand won't come back as fast as it fell..............LDP's again? |
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North Central Iowa | We all talk about 1934 and 1936. Well what if this year is just 1934 and 2014 will be 1936.
I don't think that a lot of our city friends realize how much this is going to affect them in another year.
If you look at all the new equipment, bins, Machine sheds that have been built or bought in the last 5 years. All farmers could go 5 years without buying a thing in new assets. This will really slow down the manufacturing in this country. Then wait for the multiplier affect to show up as they quit buying new stuff.
We all knew the 80 's would come back. But this time its different.
This time it will not be debt that will shut down some farmers but it will be not having enough assets to be able to borrow enough money for cash flows.
The banks will require more assets to the amount of borrowed money for cash flows. They are not going to let borrowers run with razor thin margins on this high cash rent ground knowing that we can have crop failures even with these new hybrids. I will bet we will see quite a jump in crop insurance cost for next year. They are not going to payout all this money without getting it back from us in the next few years. They know that the lenders will force borrowers into crop insurance. |
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McLeod County, MN | I am pretty sure next years crop ins will go off the 2011 crop. and the 2014 crop will go off of 2012. Thats what I was told anyway. |
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Wheatley, Arkansas | If we come back with 13B corn in 13, ethanol will gear up quickly IMO. |
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NW Ohio | 100 million acres of corn is a pipe dream..........must be something in that pipe that folks are smoking. |
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onida, south dakota | eddiedry - 7/15/2012 21:44 If we come back with 13B corn in 13, ethanol will gear up quickly IMO.
perhaps but not via the same plants or at least not owned by the same that own them today |
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| It would still be better than what we have now as our sitting dictator. |
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| 4 million more acres. than '12....maybe not. If 6-8 m ac's of CRP come out, who knows. |
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SEMN | That's a good one! |
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northcentral iowa | To grow 100 million acres in 2013 you need several things that we don't have the most important of which is SEED. You seem like a smart guy so listen for a brief moment. The hybrid corn seed crop is suffering from the weather more than the grain crop. Yes there are irrigated acres and those don't have moisture stress but the heat will reduce yields and purity on even the best irrigated production. In Iowa, most of the seed acres are dryland and there are alot of acres by all the major companies. I have been in this business for a long time and I am telling you we have a problem that cannot be offset by the capacity of SA. Good Luck to all. |
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North East Indiana | Here's what's important,
God
Family
Friends
The rest is just money, and we'll make more monday..... |
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| Hey sheepherder dont want to argue but it would not be better than our current dictator. Im no Obama fan but he loves ethanol .......... Rommney would end it tomorrow they dont like it. Also we have had better prices and done alot better under democratic leadership ie. Clinton two terms and Obama coincidence or not better think about this, Again not an Obama fan mainly for taxes but certainly food for thought. |
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SE Nebraska | granto - 7/15/2012 19:57 China would take over our country and Tim Palenty would be our sitting dictator
That would be a good thing! We are worse than China right now the way it is! |
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Saronville NE | +1 |
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Tabor MN aka God's Country | +10!!! |
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| What if I turned blue and my kids started calling me Papa Smurf? |
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Jerseyville,IL | Sorry Pofarmer didn't mean to offend you with question .
Althought I would think you or me turning Blue might get us a Job in Hollywood
maybe as a star in Avatar 2 or next big Smurf movie.
JB
Pofarmer - 7/16/2012 00:14
What if I turned blue and my kids started calling me Papa Smurf? |
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Ok what if the corn # is
