Hey Ed,

I have no way of finding the correct answer, so Ill give a gut feeling mixed with some facts from memory (may be off 10-15% in either direction).

Here in my part of the world, Ethanol plants have been around for 15+ years, with 6 of them in a 60 mile radius, soon to be 7.   Basis IMO before the last two years averaged around 30 cents.  And for the life of me I beleived ethanol gained us maybe 5-10 cents on average........................untill last year.   50 cent basis was all around us, corn piles were still on the ground, elevators were full, with trains no where in sight, heres the kicker >>>come harvest time of 06. 

Well, here we are now in almost Dec with a basis of 21 cents.........no corn piles with record corn acres, though yeilds down maybe 15-20 percent due to no rain in July.

All I can say for sure is "its going to be interesting 6 months from now"!!!