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WC MN | A lot of talk about the USDA yield lately. Just heard a poll of 1500 traders/analysts and the average thought on yield was 161.5 as of right now. I'm not sure if a lot of those guys are trading that but that is where they think the yield is as of now. Another thought I had is on basis, lots of very attractive basis quotes across the country. Many think that is a indicator that not so much corn is left. Could it not just as easily mean that its just harder to pry it out of farmers hands this year? Anything that is left unpriced has passed on $7 and its hard to sell at any less right now.
I still believe that the yield of 166 is way too high. The record setting years of 04' and 09' had cool wetter summers. Not the case this year. I am still convinced that with the added demand in the USDA figures, the stronger dollar, poor exports, and election year that the outcome of lower yields may not be what many are hoping for. In my neck of the woods NC corn is well under $5 cash ($4.60-$4.70).
Hope everyone catches a rain coming up here. | |
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