Roy,

Most folks would go the cow sale route because of the length of time it takes to grow a herd internally. Obviously buying cows at a sale increases your herd size but has no increase nationally as we are just moving sale cows from one ranch to another.

What I think is going to be very significant is the effect of last year's herd liquidations in Texas due to the drought.  While a disaster there, the effects could be national on beef. 

A lot of Texas cattle went to slaughter because of lack of grass.  These cattle incl cows are gone - on a Big Mac somewhere in the world.

What are we going to have available this year to replace those cattle in the beef supply? Especially if there is some trend toward retaining heifers, removing more head from the beef supply, at least in the near term.

This is a very interrelated issue - high prices causing cattle to go to the packers, Texas drought areas trying to rebuild herd size with recent rains, fewer Texas cattle than last year going to market, increasing export demand, retaining a few more heifers....

I better go check on mine to make sure they are all comfortable and tell them to eat up!

Jim at Dawn