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| Ed,
First of all, I'm no market guru (know-it-all) but I have learned some things via over 100 books about the speculative markets and watching the markets and charts for several years. Most of the books were worthless or repetitive but a few were gems by REAL traders.
I just don't have much to do with the news and fundamentals for reasons previously mentioned. So often so much of that stuff is "already in the market price" and a lot of it is just useless "noise."
What I like is:
Market momentum
overbought/oversold
extended market
double top and bottom--simple but good and certainly not perfect
One chart signal derived from horizontal line I ain't tell'in anybody about. It cost too much to discover. It's not perfect either but my favorite.
buy or sell when it often feels the most dangerous or most psychologically difficult (self-discipline again)
GET THIS. My opinion is only that and not to be taken as gospel. I believe the corn and beans prices stand a good chance of going significantly higher. I base this not so much on the present news as I do the unprecedented effect that the biofuels are having on these markets. It's this simple. Unprecedented demand equals unprecedented high prices. Woops, now I'm talk'in fundamentals but the thing is you can't trade the fundamentals and have good timing with your entries and exits. I'm just saying it's good to know the market momentum and the basic underlying cause that's causing it. I think farm crop prices could go up significantly and soon.
Like I said before: There's real smart people on both sides of the markets most of the time. There's also usually both bullish and bearish fundamentals and news at any point in time. Quite a challenge !
JUST MY OPINION.
Selling crop as a farmer would have me selling some anytime the markets have a nice run up and appear overbought or overextended. Lots of farmers sell their yearly crops 1/3 at a time so as to average-out at a pretty decent price. I can't argue with that. Right now I think that--beans especially--will be testing their previous highs very soon and I expect them to exceed them. JUST MY OPINION AND NOT ADVICE
FOR ANYONE.
There's a saying about those who advise about the speculative markets. "He can talk the talk but can he walk the walk." In other words he sounds good but is he actually a proven good trader--over a significant period of time? Even when a person knows what to do, can they do it?
Do they have the psychology and self-discipline of a proven trader? Great rewards usually come at a very high price. I know of several proven, professional traders. Two of them lost consistently for 7 years, maybe more, before they started to win consistently. Most people don't have the time or motivation to pay that kind of a price. One successful trader said most people aren't willing to change themselves (psychologically) enough to become successful. Believe his name was Ed Sekota. Spelling of last name could be off but he's in the Market Wizard book available from Amazon.com.
Don McCullough
Edited by getitdone1 10/27/2007 15:48
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News, fundamentals and the markets
