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| One variable to always consider: the statement "bear markets have long tails" is based upon historic bull markets in circumstances of very tight supplies. Oftentimes, "hidden inventories" build as various importers may have bought, or are buying, more than they will actually consume..."speculating on the situation." Additionally, there is often a hoarding factor. When it is recognized price has completed the rationing job, this product can come out of the woodwork, so to speak. The USDA is extremely accurate in the determination of inventories and crops within the USA, unlike any other similar agency in the world. In many other counties, the data may not be quite so accurate and may also reflect some political or economic agenda. | |
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