Wow, great post, there, SC!  There is more real-life info. in your 1st post than in some books!  I, too, have thought at one time or another that I really had a handle on things.  About 10 yrs. ago, I bought a DTN..I took every "Chart School" they offered, studied stochastics, etc...I watched some markets (markets I had no true hedge in..only speculating), and really thought I had 'er whipped!  "Nothing to it...this stuff goes in cycles", was basically my nut- shell philosophy.  Long story short:  I got out of my [stupid] positions, having only lost a few thousand.  Overall, I had made $, but geeeeeeeeez, did it EVER teach me a life-long lesson!  One (for me, anyway): I will not try and understand 'foreign' (to me) markets (i.e. cocoa, orange juice, lumber, coffee, etc).  Two:  stick to true hedges.

We raise cattle, wheat, and milo.  That makes cattle, wheat, and corn (milo's price derived from corn) true hedges for me, respectfully.

 I would like to know where you think HardRedWinterWheat (KCBT) is heading.  (KWN8)

Again, I appreciate your post(s).