I've been reading your accounts of the commodities markets with great interest. I concur with your assessment that when you think you've got the markets down, you're usually about to get your hat handed to you.

When I get to feeling that I'm pretty flush with success in the equities market, I've developed a reaction to close my positions. This has not only turned out to be a risk-limiting action, it has actually been profitable. When I quit worrying, I realize that's the time I should be worried the most.

Got any feel for whether the hedgies have reduced their exposure in the commodities markets since August?