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| It may be helpful to look at the global situation to gain some further insight to these markets. The previous year has brought mixed weather problems to various countries & in some cases demand is growing, which would be expected. The question now is: will these weather problems persist? The odds, since weather is cyclical, favor increased production in which inventories are replenished followed by a year in which production is normal and inventories are comfortable once again. To fight this notion, the odds are less than in Las Vegas, in my opinion. However, another year of mixed weather would place the world consumer in considerable anguish; history, however, suggests we will again return to more normal growing conditions.
At this moment in time, the risk is very high, we are in what I term is the second stage of a bull market, will there be a third stage following today's report (?), or will the market have put in a top and remain in a large trading range until concerns over acreage are more clear, which the market will address throughout the next few months.
This table is present in Millions of metric tons. A reminder that while USA stox and production are predominant in the world, we are not the only store in town. While it is pure speculation at this point in regard to the new crop potential, the question in my mind, if we have normal weather (world wide) is a pricing concern for the 2009 crop.
I attach a table.
Attachments
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 world.doc (24KB - 545 downloads)
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World Perspective-A quick glimpse
