AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

must read
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
John Burns
Posted 6/2/2011 21:31 (#1803475 - in reply to #1803037)
Subject: the good news, if you call it that



Pittsburg, Kansas

The good news, if you want to call it good news, is that farmers in general terms usually do pretty well in inflationary times. For several reasons.

Farmers tend to have a lot of their wealth tied up in "hard" productive assets. Land, machinery, buildings, etc. Hard assets hold their real value. An acre of land a hundred years ago is still an acre of land now. A given tractor does the same work each year regardless of what it costs or what current relative value is placed on it. Owning hard assets is one way to hedge against inflation and farmers tend to own hard assets.

Farmers also tend to borrow money on those hard productive assets. If the "real" rate of interest (interest rate minus inflation rate) is expensive it is not such an advantage but often in inflationary times real interest rates are low or as the case is now, actually negative. This allows hard assets to be paid off in cheaper dollars as the inflation causes prices of commodities to rise while the original loan amount stays the same.

Debtors who are in debt for productive hard assets are rewarded by inflation. Savers are punished because their savings are reduced in value. The "interest" they earn on their savings often is not even enough to offset the loss of purchasing power of the money. Their account balance grows, but doesn't buy any more goods. For savings to grow in real terms interest rates paid have to be greater than the rate of price inflation.

Farmers who run highly leveraged, purchasing assets with loans that can be paid off with cheaper dollars, benefit significantly from inflation. That is why you will not hear a lot of farmers complain about inflation. Farmers who operate with little debt and tend to be savers rather than borrowers will be at a disadvantage compared to their debtor neighbors in an inflationary environment. In the 70's those that borrowed heavily did well till inflation was hammered by Paul Volker and the rules of the game changed essentially over night.

If you are a saver, you should hate inflation. If you are a debtor of hard productive assets, inflation helps you at the expense of savers. If you are a debtor of non-productive consumer products...........you are hopeless anyway, don't have a financial clue and are a financial cow to be milked so never mind what I say.

My opinion.

John



Edited by John Burns 6/2/2011 21:33
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)