No.

If you want to try and draw parallels from recent history then 1971 would the best we have to compare. The stakes were not nearly as high then as they are now, but some similarities existed.

Money supplies had been increasing for a number of years to fund the Vietnam war and Johnsons Great Society. We were on a gold exchange standard where foreign countries could redeem dollars they held from international commerce for gold. At least that was the theory. In actual practice there was a "gentleman's agreement" from other major countries that they would not redeem dollars for gold. This was, as I understand it, mostly because at that time the US was basically the world policeman and the other countries were putting up with the US debasement of the dollar....... for a while at least..... loosely in exchange for not having to spend a lot of military money.

The dollar had prodigiously been printed to fund the stuff the US government wanted and the other countries knew it. The dollar was loosing its value and they were getting tired of it. France broke ranks, requested a large exchange of dollars for gold, and sent a battle ship over to pick it up. They got theirs. That started the gold run, with other countries requesting redemption. The gold window was closed in 71 by Nixon.

This is the start of the rapid inflation of the 70's. The inflation of the money supply had already taken place. We had exported a lot of it but price inflation had started in the US (price inflation lags monetary inflation, unless people start to anticipate it). Inflation went to double digit and Paul Volker, then Fed chair, stepped in with high interest rates to stop the inflation. The high interest rates put the US in a severe recession.

Farmers had learned to play the inflation game a little too well. As long as land prices were rising (they were not making any more of it but they sure were making a lot more dollars to buy it with) they could lever up and buy another quarter. The recession along with other ag shocks caused farm income to not be so rosy and along with 20% interest rates land prices plummeted. Land went through the same type bubble then as housing prices has just went through.

So how does that relate to now?

Lots of money being printed (QE) and high farm income. 1970's = check  2011=check

Rapidly rising land prices - then and now = check

What did it take to pop the bubble then? falling farm income and high interest rates

So far we have neither. Most land loans are on fixed interest instead of variable like in the 70's. The Fed has promised low interest rates as far as the eye can see (no Paul Volker types in the administration or Fed)

If the market or a "new" Paul Volker causes high interest rates (will not affect existing loans but will affect new sales)...............and for some reason farm income drops drastically.............we could see land prices retreat. Farm land is in stronger hands now than in the 80's. Most interest rates are fixed, not variable. Not as likely to see as big of bust in my opinion. That does not mean prices could not soften under certain conditions.

If we do not find a "new" Paul Volker and we experience high inflation rates, dollars may be looking for any hard asset it can buy so land prices could explode under that scenario. I see no one in the government with the idea of high interest on the horizon. The marketplace may have different ideas, but the current government will not raise rates because it will cause a recession/depression. 

Before, the Fed saved the dollar by strengthening it through reining in inflation with high interest rates. The current Fed is actively trying to destroy the dollar. Since the government is not taking it on themselves to act responsibly this time, the market eventually will force the situation.

I see similarities of land market in the 70-80's and now, but not the same set of conditions. Things could change.

My opinion.

John