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| IF you are light on old crop sales starting to scale in a couple of weeks ago was a good idea..............if you are down to gambling bushels its a matter of what kind of gambler you are..............I still think this thing has some legs left in it.............and basis or the BOT or both are going to pop this thing higher...............soya are a little more tricky on old crop, again scaling in a couple of weeks ago was a start...........now you are left with the idea of holding out for 2011 acres to be light pushing old crop and new crop higher............I still think soya are setup for a major push higher, but I have been somewhat wrong on that for a few weeks now.................just might take sometime given SA harvest and China head fakes........
If you listened to USFR this AM you would have heard at least one guy that basically regurgitated a large amount of what has been said here for weeks or months now..........and actually more bullish..........as the number $9 and $20 were kicked around (not my numbers, its was spoken)............
As for new crop, pricing some is not a bad idea..........new crop has basically held its own for a few weeks now (more so corn, then soya, then wheat)................
As for price targets and risk...........well most never dreamed we would be here today a year ago............so pick a day I guess............$8 is likely the first target to be toyed with................just don't be late to the party............as for risk..........old crop probably doesn't have a lot of downside risk unless something major shifts the boat, and again that's always hanging out there, so if you don't like it, price it NOW............................new crop is a mixed bag....................I think there will be some good opportunities to price out a year or two if we get a weather scare...................but again don't be late to the party.................real risk for new crop are all the unknowns including a super bullish scenario from less acres and production for 2011, this could lead to some interesting jocking by governments................
A couple of shoes on the bull side I can see dropping................export sales..........I think China is buying time and hoping and Japan will come hungry...............acres/production.............at this point it doesn't really matter IMO, we will struggle to punch a 13B corn crop and 3.25B soya crop, whether is a combo of low acres or low nat avg.............
Shoes on the bear side.............I will let someone else pick that one up..................
EDIT: use the old crop scare and weather to get new crop priced.....................as for 2012, that might be the home run if we get a pop that far out this year............
EDIT: the one big question I am struggling with is how things will shake out if we punch 2011 production numbers like the ones I have laid out above................it could be super bullish for new crop or end up leading to fundamental changes that will take us lower.............
Edited by Mizzou Tiger 4/16/2011 19:12
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Mizzou Tiger?
