THIS WAS ISSUED BY ME 4/26 .... 1pm EDT One of my competitors here at Midday has looked at the midday America model and somehow deduced that the pattern is turning favorable for a drier pattern for much of the Plains & the Midwest and the first week of May. His statement could have an impact on trader perception this afternoon.... ( dry weather finally!!! Now we can plant that corn.... ) But I am NOT going that way at all.... and I think this particular forecaster will Bust ....again.
One of the reasons why I try to present actual model data to you is NOT to bamboozle you with BS .... My intention in presenting the actual model data is is so that YOU can seen which forecast/ forecaster is telling the truth and which forecast is engaged in Spin and BS.
The competitor who issued this midday special weather statement / forecast about 15 minutes ago with regard to it dry / warmer pattern developing for the Plains and Midwest in the first week of MAY is .... believe it or not ...the same individual who issued a similar statement back on APRIL 2... that April 2007 would turn warmer and dry ...
The midday America model continues to develop a strong area of HIGH pressure over central Canada which drives southward and forces a cold front into the Midwest and the Upper Plains by MAY 3...
This front essentially shuts off the warmth... that is not to say it's going to turn cold again over the Midwest. It certainly will not. But the heat over the Plains states is not going to make it into the Midwest with this high pressure area to the north.
What appears to be happening is that far too many forecasters have latched onto the overall Jet stream pattern... and no matter what the data says they wont back away. They have been focusing the Ridge over the Plains and the Rockies ( as I was back on Sunday and Monday morning ) and they are now committed to the idea that this is warm dry pattern is going to last....as if the calender said it is July or August. They are overlooking the developing High pressure over central Canada and that all the of model data is clearly showing the cold front dropping southward then stalling over the Midwest.
By MAY 5th the deep trough over the West Coast and Rockies Moves into the Plains and we see significant showers and thunderstorms developing By the evening of May 6 there are more significant showers and thunderstorms over much of the Plains now pushing into the WCB The overall pattern is going to be warm but it's not going to stay dry for many areas of the Upper Plains & the Midwest. This is what the 6 to 10 day and 8-14 day forecasts from yesterday were depicting and I don't see any reason why these maps will be different this afternoon when they come out at 3 pm. Central Time.
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