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| The increases in states that were not harvesting yet could be a result of new bushels coming into the system further south and demand using those up resulting in less usage farther out. I have not personally broke down were the huge increases came from, but I have heard they were up north.
Basically new crop in the south robbed demand from old crop in the north.
It doesn't really matter were the bushels show up or disappear. Its still a fluid guessing game, supply comes in, demand goes out. Inventory tracking in many elevators consist of trucks in and trucks out. Have no idea if its old crop or new crop unless you ask. It is not really tracked all the well IF AT ALL, and at the end of the day you bin it by moisture or shipping spec, NOT IF ITS OLD CROP OR NEW CROP (yes I have had experience with this in the past).
Again, I might be wrong, but until someone lays out a procedure that details how they distinguish these bushels and how things are collected I am sticking to the fact that the 2009 crop was lighter than the books say. 2010 is going to come in around 12.7 maybe 12.8. If we keep demand in soya and corn strong, the corn pipeline starts gasping. This will snowball into an acreage battle that will be one for the books. Wheat will buy back some acres, cotton will buy back a lot of acres if it holds. Soya has to keep what it has, and corn is going to need more, maybe much more. Now if wheat gets strong again and soya production becomes an issue in SA then its all time high testing time. Hell, if things align right and USDA plays dumb with this thing, come mid to late next summer is when we see things really get crazy. Generally speaking, the longer you keep the lid on, the higher the pressure till it goes BOOM. Remember, and I might be the only one here that thinks this, I believe 2011 we see thing on a worldwide economic scale improving. It might be slow and steady and seem stale (we have already started, but few want to see it yet). However, someday you turn around and look behind you and realize slow and steady just might win the race and then BOOM.
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OCT. REPORT or any usda report....................
