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Mascoutah, Illinois | As I have stated in the short term, I am defensive in grains. Beans failed for the third time in the past few weeks between $10.45 and $10.50. With basis in the St. Louis area at plus 30-35 for December and January delivery, I would be making sales on any strength this week. I would not be suprised to see the November contract try and retest the $9.75 area.
September wheat traded down to $6.45 and I would be looking for a sharp bounce from this level if the bull thesis is still in tact. (In the neighborhood of $6.50 was the 50% retracement from the top a couple of weeks ago in the September contract which topped out at $8.41.) If the price action in wheat is not positive tomorrow, the bull will have left the scene and let the bear take control.
Markets are feeling a bit tepid this week even as corn inches higher. Watch the $4.39 level in December as the measuring stick.
Longer term I believe we go higher, but the rally looks all too similar to 2009 when we made the yearly highs in the middle of December.
Edited by djmcountryboy 8/18/2010 22:10
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The bean chart is looking ugly.
