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outstanding - 29/03/2007 12:50: 00 p.m. - CCA for fyo.com
Historical precipitation record
Rains observed from the day in center Southeastern Sunday of SF, the South center of ER and to a lesser extent the BA northeast, have generated a situation of extreme gravity for the closing of the present heavy campaign.
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The amount of water fallen in the last days long surpasses the normal values of the month of March. Although the impact of this event has extended in means by the evacuees in the cities of Rosary and Santa Fe, great part of the center of this province is undergoing the own consequences of rivers and overflowed streams, like thus also the natural flooding of the low zones. He himself problem reproduces in the province of ER, mainly in the cities of Parana, Diamond, Gualeguay, Galarza and others of the low river basin of the Gualeguay River.
Some numbers can serve to determine the proportions the magnitude of this event. Before analyzing the data the transition must be known that the month of March normally has an increase of precipitations, that is to say, towards the autumn usually is humid, mainly on the south of SF, the northwest of BA and the vicinities of the CB Southeast, this zone has nevertheless not been the main protagonist of these pluvial maximums. To the margin of this, this consolidating like an historical record in the month of March. Taking the pluviométricas series from the cities reprensadas in the graph from year 1961, the accumulated ones they are values record by distant spot. In individual in the SF locality, the pluvial registries that begin in 1901, do not show any similar antecedent for the month of March. These localities like representative must be taken from the zone, that is to say, and very possibly given the characteristics that showed the precipitantes systems of the last days, these data reproduce in similar form in all the area that unfolds from the SF center to the entrerriano south. Towards the northeast of BA, rains also they have been intense but not of this bearing.
From the statistical point of view and taking into account the pluvial series from 1961, accumulated resemblances to the present ones have a probability of very small recurrence. For Gualeguay the calculation throws a value of once every 150 years, for Rosary increases the frequency once to every 75 years, that is to say, this city tends to never register in the month of March important events although of this dimension. The most showy data is of the SF locality, which has practically reached 500 mm. In this case the statistic available allows to calculate a value of recurrence of 1 time every 250 years.
Since this event not yet has finalized, it is very possible that the month of March closes with registries superior to 500 mm in many localities of the affected area. An historical event since pluvial registries in the zone and with very small capacity of recurrence take.
At the beginning of the month of March the tendency marked a floor in normal rains with possible located positive apartments, nevertheless this far from being able to anticipate events of tremendous magnitude with as much time of anticipation. The event well has been anticipated from the day Sunday. The tendera situation to decompress with improvement of the time being mediated the day of the day Friday.
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Argentina 250 year flood
