Posted 6/30/2010 15:32 (#1255903 - in reply to #1255901) Subject: Re: Looking for some opinions, please share.
The OVERIDING BULLISH FACTOR was the stocks report.....calculated usage would have implied a June 1 stocks of 4575 instead the stocks are estimated at 4.310 & for all practical purposes about the same as one year ago.....this implies (1) increased above expectations usage OR (2.) a reduced 2009 crop......in contrast to the reported last year's production report. Regardless, I feel we have seen the lows in futures...basis action is another question. Additionally, will the trade assume (1) or go with (2)?? If the trade & analysts assume greater usage....raises price outlook as 2010-11 usage would be understated....if they go with (2) high price ideas would be moderated and raise yields and weather back onto the front burner.
Looking for some opinions, please share.
