West Central Alberta Coldest, wettest edge | I look at is as a race between demographics, and improved agricultural methods the world over. If population growth, ( or more likely affluence growth more so than actual numbers) advances faster than the technology to feed them, the farmer wins. If increased yeilds, efficiencies, and opening up more farmland happens faster than the eventual population peak, we lose. It seems that everytime there is a new report on world population, the forecast number of people drops and the number of first world countries in population decline increases. So, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the population boom to raise prices.
I've been in Russia and there is huge potential for increases, both in yeilds but also in acres. Still very inefficient methods, and land sitting idle. If not for unstable politics, and socialist governments that scare off investors, much of the developing world could be producing crops like western Europe and America do today. Would the increased affluence of those regions be enough to eat all of the increased production? It seems unlikely considering how much food most developed nations export, including some very densely inhabited european nations. The best hope I see is that with increased standard of living, they all switch from eating grains to eating meat, one source I just found says it takes 5 pounds of grain to make 1 pound of meat. Meanwhile in the developed nations, people are cutting back on their meat consumption, another race against time, which happens faster?
I agree, PeteMN, a lot of regions of the world could produce crops and livestock much cheaper than we can here in Alberta. Hard to compete when we have to feed half the year, and grow crops for only a few months of the year.
Any hope( very inappropriate choice of words, sorry) that soil degradation will save us? I've read anecdotally that the rain forest soil in Brazil etc. has a very short lifespan in cropping conditions.
I think the growing environmental pressures might offer a better chance. IF the public decides that big government should restrict fertilizer use, ban certain chemicals, outlaw GM crops, restrict water usage etc. we could see drastic declines in yields and spikes in prices. Lots of horror stories about water shortages in China, Australia, middle east, and even in North America. If it turns out that irrigation, particularly with ground water isn't sustainable, that will put a big dent in the cultivatable areas of the world. Australia is already buying out the farmers with water rights to save the water for the city folks. Seems like a good "government project" to me, why would the city people need to live in the middle of the desert if not for the farming industry?
The world hasn't seen a big weather event for a long time, just localized crop failures. One big volcanic eruption to cool us off, or widespread drought or flooding would remind consumers where their food comes from since most of them haven't known hunger since the last world war, we've all been too efficient, and mother nature has been very cooperative.
Edited by Alberta Farmer 6/16/2010 03:02
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Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
