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| Repetitive I know...but these grain markets have been "sold out" for quite awhile (no big spec interest)...HOWEVER..the Index Funds are recently assuming more ownership in corn versus the other spec interests & is (based upon history) a precursor to a price rally.
In the soybeans commercials in the past 6 weeks are getting longer....
In the oats...typically during the may-july period speculator long versus shorts leans to an almost outrageous level to the long side......this year the spec crowd is (WAS) sold out & short. Commercials have been getting increasingly long oats since mid-February.
In my experience (a generation ago, at least) as a large oat trader & usually playing the delivery game...the folks who manufacture Cheerios are the big dog in the hunt and "do set the rules" & "take no prisoners" they are content to let the specs and other commercials 'do their thing' until they decide the game is up.
I also find it interesting that prior to the Bilderburgs Meeting the rhetoric out of Europe was 'to save all and everyone'..now the rhetoric (post meeting) appears to be "let them hang in the wind" (the piigs) and while this may just be a cover story...should it prove true deflation looms......the cheaper EURO will permit them to gain export advantages in several areas including Pork.
Governments require a long time to perform their smoke and mirror activity....the complete opposite of traders who may take immediate action.....Governments are "the spit and whittle" crowd with always a damp finger in the air to check which way the wind is blowing.....cheaper food prices always soothe the masses & Governments always feel the best when they can watch the occasional "Willie Nelson" concert on TV for the benefit of Agriculture. Folks in the Hinterlands are pretty angry...at everything and everyone....& suspect politicians are closely watching the sales of ammunition by zip code & the sales of hemp rope...under those pressures the opportunities arise when they make their usual inept decisions for political survival.
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A QUICK LOOK
