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Central Illinois | We as farmers are always trying to find bullish news in the marketplace. It is just our nature. We have to look at the risk/reward of raising a crop and selling at profitable levels. There is just way too much risk in the marketplace today with the outside markets, foreign economies, etc. We have to become better risk managers. I like to put percentages on what I think will happen. I am giving a 20% chance of Dec corn back to $4.25 with a warm/dry weather scare near pollination or China? I am giving an 80% chance Dec corn is $3-3.20 this fall. So I am looking at say 60-80 cents downside potential or $120 acre at 200 bushel corn. That is alot of money to lose.
I am in no way saying we go straight to these levels but we get a slow grind lower. I would be selling rallies on corn and beans which we are do for some by looking at the charts.
Set some objectives at proftiable levels and make some sales. Don't sell the farm but make some sales as the risk we face is huge. I am currently out of old crop and sold to my crop insurance level for 2010, and 30% for 2011. | |
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"Rain makes Grain"
